No, China is not banning Apple, at least not yet!

The United States decision to ban Chinese company, Huawei Technologies co., while also threatening bans on other Chinese technology companies, could open the chance to retaliation against the US brands such as Apple.

Huawei has lost access to Google’s Android, Intel’s chips, ARM and Qualcomm. Additionally, Google may just have ruined Huawei’s attempt to become the world’s top smartphone brand.

There’s a lot at stake for the US too. The most precise target is Huawei’s rival Apple Inc., which makes about a fifth of its revenue from China and manufactures its iPhones there.

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President Trump’s Huawei ban could cost Apple about 3% to 5% of its iPhone sales in China over the next 12 to 18 months, according to Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities.

Apple’s ban? But it is not happening, at least not now. Why?

Apple Inc. also supports about 5 million jobs in China, about 1.8 million of which are through its iOS App Store ecosystem. Foxconn provides more than 1 million jobs in China. That’s why the Apple ban in China will hurt the country internally.

A step ahead – Huawei’s founder, Ren Zhengfei, in an interview with Bloomberg, saying China shouldn’t punish Apple. If that does happen, he added, “I’ll be the first to protest.’’

Ren too doesn’t think that China will ban the US company, Apple. You need to read Ren’s statement (below) very accurately:

“That will not happen, first of all. And second of all, if that happens, I’ll be the first to protest. Apple is the world’s leading company. If there was no Apple, there would be no mobile internet. If there was no Apple to help show us the world, we would not see the beauty of this world. Apple is my teacher — it’s advancing in front of us. As a student, why should I oppose my teacher? I would never do that.”

Well, why I added, “at least not yet”?

Many analysts have predicted that the increasing Apple boycott moment in China could cost Apple as much as 50% of its iPhone sales in the nation.

Goldman Sachs warned of the worst-case scenario for Apple: official retaliation by China, blocking iPhone sales in the country. There could be a 29% drop in Apple’s total global profits, according to Goldman Sachs.

Apple investors also think there’s a solid possibility that China could completely ban the sale of Apple products in the country.

Last year, Huawei shipped 206 million smartphones, 105 million in China, accounting for 26.4% of the domestic market, according to the IDC data. In comparison, Apple ranked fifth in China with a 9.1% share. In the Q1 2019, that fell further to 7% compared to a 3% share gain for Huawei, according to Counterpoint.

In Q1 2019 iPhone shipments worldwide fell to 36.4 million units, a 30.2% decline from Q1 2018. Interestingly, Huawei was the only top smartphone manufacturer that recorded positive growth in the first three months.

What do you think: Will China ban Apple? Let me know in the comments below.